Thus, the role of the basic symptoms was to raise the predictive value modestly from 50% to 70%, not to fully cause a predictive value of 70%. Instead of the predictive value of basic symptoms, the real noteworthy element of the remarkable study by Klosterkotter et al63 lies in the fact that the authors succeeded in creating a series of sophisticated selection processes that led to a final enriched sample of individuals with a 50% probability of developing schizophrenia over the 9.6-year period. This selective enrichment process

involved the existence of special interest groups at German university Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical psychiatry departments, with an interest in young people who posed a challenge with regard to a possible diagnosis of schizophrenia.

Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical Such a center “attracts” a highly enriched sample of individuals at risk of schizophrenia through a series of selection processes, as illustrated in Table V Individuals in the general population developing illness behavior visit the GR The GP refers those with suspected Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical severe mental disorder to the general mental health services. The general mental health services refer those with suspected schizophrenia onto the specialist university department. With each referral from one level to the next, a selection process takes place creating “enriched” samples that are progressively more likely to contain individuals who are Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical likely to develop schizophrenia. Other groups wishing to replicate the German findings in their own setting, must therefore not only use the basic symptom scale, but, much more importantly, replicate exactly the same sample enrichment strategy to yield a sample with a 50% probability of developing

schizophrenia. In addition, rather than a posteriori, any additional contribution of basic symptoms to the predictive value needs to be replicated selleckchem prospectively in a fresh sample at the start of sampling enrichment procedure. If the results hold after these replications, the basic symptoms,64 or instruments used in Melbourne, Australia,46 or New Haven, Conn,45 may Batimastat possibly be used Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical to modestly raise the predictive value from 50% to 70% in samples enriched with schizophrenia risk. In Table V, the effect of using measures such as Basic Symptoms or other high-risk instruments at other levels in the sample enrichment procedure with more diluted samples and therefore lower rates of (future) schizophrenia is shown. The predictive values were calculated using the DIAGTEST procedure in the STATA statistical program, version 8,65 at various levels with their corresponding best estimate rates of schizophrenia. The DIAGTEST procedure in STATA provides the predictive values based on Bayes’ theorem. As can be seen in Table IV in the general population, the basic symptoms would not yield a positive predictive value (PPV) of 70%, but of only 1.